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Run an expected-value analysis on this decision: {{decision and payoffs}}.
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Run an expected-value analysis on this decision: {{decision and payoffs}}. (1) List every possible outcome, at least four, including 'nothing happens'; (2) assign probabilities and state the basis for each — historical data, analogy, or judgment; (3) compute expected value, and separately ask whether I can absorb the worst case; (4) check whether a 20% error in the probability estimate flips the conclusion; (5) warn me that if an outcome would irreversibly worsen my position, positive expected value is not sufficient.Replace the {{variables}} with your own details, then paste the whole block into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or any other assistant. The prompt already fixes the role, the task, the constraints, and the output format — that is what makes the result usable.
帮我用期望值分析这个决定：{{决策与收益情形}}。要求：1) 列出所有可能结果（至少四个，含「什么都没发生」）；2) 给每个结果一个概率，并说明概率从哪来（历史数据/类比/主观估计）；3) 算期望值，同时算「最坏情况的损失我能不能承受」；4) 指出如果概率估计偏差 20%，结论是否会变；5) 提醒我：如果这个结果会让我的处境不可逆地变差，期望值再高也不该做。Run an expected-value analysis on this decision: {{decision and payoffs}}.
No — this prompt is in the free tier and is shown in full.
Yes. It is plain text, so it works with ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and any other assistant.