Require confidence labeling

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Answer this question: {{question}}. Requirements: (1) label each conclusion — [certain] with reliable support, [likely] with indirect support, [guess] from general patterns, [unknown] where I do not know; (2) for every likely or guess, state the basis and where it could be wrong; (3) separately state 'if forced to answer, this is what I would say and how much to trust it'; (4) identify which parts cannot be settled by general knowledge and what would need verification.

回答这个问题：{{问题}}。要求：1) 每一条结论后面标注确定度——[确定]（有可靠依据）、[较可能]（有间接依据）、[推测]（基于一般规律）、[不清楚]（我不知道）；2) 对每个 [较可能] 和 [推测] 说明依据是什么、什么地方可能出错；3) 单独列出「如果我必须给一个答案，我会怎么答，以及这个答案的可信度」；4) 明确指出这个问题里有哪部分是我无法通过常识判断的，需要查证什么。