Separate decision quality from outcome quality

Copy this prompt

I am unhappy with the outcome of {{decision}}: {{outcome}}. Determine whether the problem was the decision or luck: (1) reconstruct the information available at the time — was the choice reasonable given only what was known then; (2) estimate how much of the outcome was outside my control; (3) place it in the 2x2: right decision / good outcome (skill), right / bad (bad luck), wrong / good (lucky), wrong / bad (genuine error); (4) if it was bad luck, say what to keep and what not to change; (5) if it was a real error, name the specific thinking mistake.

我对 {{决策}} 的结果 {{结果}} 不满意。请帮我判断问题出在决策还是运气：1) 复原当时的信息环境——在只知道当时信息的条件下，这个选择是否合理；2) 结果中有多少比例由不可控因素决定；3) 归入四象限：决策对+结果好（实力）、对+坏（坏运气）、错+好（侥幸）、错+坏（真失误）；4) 如果属于「坏运气」，告诉我该保留什么、不该改什么；5) 如果属于「真失误」，指出那次判断中具体的思维错误。